THE ROLE OF URBAN RENT AND PLANNING IN ESCALATION OF EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS:
UNFOLD FINDINGS REFERRING TO THE REVISION OF PLANNING PRACTICE

This paper analyzes urban rent parameters of after-earthquake damage from the planning perspective with cross-sectional data gathered from Adapazarı, Turkey, where 1999 Eastern Marmara Earthquake took place. The study employs ANN and regression models and analyzes the outcomes unfolding some findings that may lead to criticism and revising the role of city planning and practical implications. Physical density, land value, and the distance to the city center provide urban rent and they are used as inputs to predict the earthquake damage. The analysis results show that all the models are equally capable of predicting the earthquake damage. All chosen variables suitably explained the dependent variable, damage. The findings are: (1) short-term rent profit-seeking is one of the most significant causes of damage escalation after an earthquake occurrence, confirming the role of effective rent control in city planning; (2) particularly the confounding effect of all concern variables chosen, proximity to the city center, density and land value (differential rent) was significant in causing damages, and thus, especially re-considering the location of central activities in relation to other land uses due to usual overlooking of seismic criteria (fault lines, etc.) in the design of urban settlements as approved on the city plans should be a new appeal in planning.